Wednesday, January 31, 2007

US Demand as Reflected in Final Sales

1/31/07 Fell off the cliff last quarter. Last time this kind of drop occured was in 2001 and with a few months the Fed began lowering rates.

Tuesday, January 30, 2007

1/30/07 The over-all Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index number was up today. But this subcomponent, income expectations, dropped for a second month in a row? What specifically do consumers see into the future that would stall income growth?

Saturday, January 27, 2007

Military Spending by Country Comparison

1/27/2007 For 2003-2005 posted on the Impeachforpeace web site. If USDs spent correlates positively with military strenth then the US has by far the most powerful military force in the world.

Recent surge in German Exports.

1/27/07 The fall of 2006 shows quickening pace for German exports. Is this kind of growth sustainable?

Global Risk Appetite Gauge - AUD/CHF

1/27/07 The rate dropped below the short term uptrend line this week. Due primarily to a significant drop in Australia's CPI. But could it also be an early warning sign that uncertainty is moving back into world markets?

Home Inventory Survey Data vs Lumber Futures Data

1/27/07 Single family home Listings from Realtor MLS for Boston, LA and Greenwich, CT Nov 2006 to Jan 26 2007. Lumber futures prices for the same time period. Do January lumber futures prices confirm January's rising house inventory?

Yen and Pound Speculative COT positions As of last Tuesday

1/27/07 Yesterday's COT report for postitions as of Tuesday showed record breaking extremes for these currencies. GBP/JPY peaked on Tuesday to 241.40 then dropped to 238.20 by friday.
COT is suppose to be a contrarian indicator. Problem is that the data is released on 3 days after the fact.

Friday, January 26, 2007

1/26/07 This morning's December New Home Sales data issued by the government may provide false hope on housing market. Today's survey (includes three weeks of this month) of the Realtor's MLS site of single family home sales in Boston, LA and Greenwich, CT suggests that inventories have started to trend back up - mostly a seasonal effect. The problem is that it is trending up from a significantly higher level than last year.

Thursday, January 25, 2007

US M3 as Calculated by John Williams

1/25/07 From his Shadow Government Statistics site.

1/25/07 This chart is from the Wall Street Journal today. Part of an article on by Greg Ip. I post it here because I was surprised by how small the percentage of Securities and Investment jobs there are. Even the Financial services number seems low to me. Interesting when you remove this group from unit labor cost then you get a negative number in wage growth (non-financial unit labor costs).

IMF Report on US Income and Longevity

1/25/07 This is really no surprise that wealthier white women live longer than poor black men. Really what is surprising to me is that overall that being a wealthy white man does not give you many more years of life than be a poor white man.

Monday, January 22, 2007

November 2006 TIC Data Net Inflows and November 2006 Trade balance

1/22/07 Not surprisingly many traders misread last week's TIC data because of the new way it has been presented - which emphasizes the foreign flows to the US and de-emphaisizes the US purchase and or sales of foreign securities. NET FLOWs to the US easily exceeded Novembers trade deficit.

Beggar's hand begging for Money

1/22/07 Compare this Reuters photo to Jack Krause's picture posted on the 20th. Kind of puts things into a starker perspective?

Maybe commodities are getting a little oversold? First leg of right should looks close to being completed. The top of the shoulder should be at the 50% FIBO LEVEL.

Planning a short EUR/CAD trade today

Sunday, January 21, 2007

The Yuan, Ricardo's Law and Vendor Financing

1/21/07 This chart is from the China Currency Coalition website. My interpretation is that the orange line represents what a hypothetical yuan exchange rate would be based on Ricardo's law. The blue line is the actual result of what some people call China's currency manipulation or what others might call vendor financing. Its kind of hard for me to decide which is better: 1) the potential "future" benefits of higher employment and higher standard of living with an unpegged yuan or 2) cheap foreign imports "now?"

Saturday, January 20, 2007

Crude Extraction Cost from this morning WSJ

by Scott Pollack

A great picture in Time Magazine by Jack Krause

1/20/07 Accompanied Time Mag article on Global decoupling from US.


1/20/07 The front month contract terminates on Monday. Wonder if Storage Capcity had anything to do with the jump over the last two weeks?

House Price survey data from Realtor MLS Listings

1/20/07 As of Friday January 19, 2007 for selected markets (Boston, LA and Greenwich/Westchester County). Average prices beginning to weaken. Note that the Greenwich area has a small increase - maybe secondary to large Wall Street XMASS bonuses?

Friday, January 19, 2007

Current Prices Paid and Future Prices Received from Philly Fed

1/19/07 Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey was released today and current paid and future prices received continue to fall.


Thursday, January 18, 2007

How do "Interest-rate future" prices help FX Traders?

1/18/07 This from Bloomberg tonight:

"Zero Chance"
"Interest-rate futures show traders see zero chance the Fed will cut its target overnight lending rate between banks in March, down from a 100 percent likelihood seen last month. The Fed's benchmark is now 5.25 percent. Policy makers next set rates on Jan. 31."

Core CPI and Autos Jan 1993 to Dec 2006

1/18/07 Steady decline in auto prices over last several months. Could it be related to purchases of smaller cars? I am assuming that the price of a small car is lower than a large one?

Wednesday, January 17, 2007

Japanses Consumer Confidence

1/17/07 The December reading took a significant drop to extend the down trend. BoJ decides today if it will change rates.

Tuesday, January 16, 2007

Future CAPEX from Empire Manufacturing Survey

1/16/07 Today's report of the December data showed a drop in this subsector. This chart suggests to me that there may some leveling off of CAPEX.

Friday, January 12, 2007

1/12/07 US Dec 2006 Retail Sales x autos x gas stations x restaurants. Shows pretty strong number.

Thursday, January 11, 2007

1/11/07 Here's a chart of the Credit:Income ratio and the Fed rate. From 1990 to 2000 the correlation was 40% , not too impressive. However from 2000 thru Nov 2006 the correlation was a negative 80%.

1/11/07 Today's natural gas storage report showed another drawdown despite incredibly warm weather last week. But if you compare storage to the last several years then you can see that we have a massive build up going into the rest of the winter.

Friday, January 5, 2007

1/5/06 Here's a chart of lumber futures beginning in March 2005 and ending with today's price. This chart is consistent with a bottoming out in the residential real estate slump.